Christian McCaffrey won’t finish as RB #1?
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You have the second pick. You know who is going first. The whole room knows who is going first. The pick is in, and who was selected?
In full point PPR leagues, the format used for reference in this article, the most likely answer is Christian McCaffrey. If you missed out on RUN CMC, did you miss out on the top fantasy running back? YES! Probably. But not all hope is lost. Citing FantasyPros, here are the RB1s since 2012:
2012 Adrian Peterson - 347.4 total points / 16 games / 21.7 average per game
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2013 Jamaal Charles - 382.1 total points / 15 games / 25.5 average per game
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2014 Le’Veon Bell - 370.5 16 total points / 16 games / 23.2 average per game
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2015 Devonta Freeman - 316.9 total total points / 15 games / 21.1 average per game
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2016 David Johnson - 407.8 total points / 16 games / 25.5 average per game
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2017 Todd Gurley - 383.3 total points / 15 games / 25.6 average per game
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2018 Saquon Barkley - 385.8 total points / 16 games / 24.1 average per game
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2019 Christian McCaffrey - 471.2 total points / 16 games / 29.5 average per game
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Notice anything? Since 2012, there has not been a repeat season for the RB1 from the previous year. Going back even further via Pro Football Reference, the last RB1 to repeat was LaDainian Tomlinson in the 2006 & 2007 season. A few others to achieve this elusive, back-to-back, top spot finish include Emmitt Smith in 1994 & 1995, Marshall Faulk in 1999, 2000 & 2001, Priest Holmes in 2002 & 2003, and Shaun Alexander in the 2004 & 2005 seasons. Now listen, I love McCaffery, as he is an incredibly safe first pick with an exceptionally high floor. If you have the first pick, take RUN CMC with confidence, as he possesses every skill needed to finish as RB1 overall again. But what if the current 12-year streak continues and McCaffery doesn't finish the year as RB1, then who will it be? Saquon Barkley? Ezekiel Elliott? Alvin Kamara? Here is a wildcard to consider for the top spot:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
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The 5-7, 210 pounds running back from LSU couldn't have asked for a better landing spot. Due to Damien Williams opting out of the 2020 season, Edwards-Helaire is the starting running back for the defending Super Bowl champions: the Kansas City Chiefs. He has the best QB in the league, Patrick Mahomes, who led the KC offense to the 4th most PPG in the NFL last year, all while missing two games. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Tight End Travis Kelce will cause defenders to respect the pass, only making things easier for Edwards-Helaire.
But can a rookie be RB1? We don't have to look too far in the past to see that Saquon Barkley accomplished this in his 2018 rookie campaign. Former Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt wasn't RB1 his rookie year, but he was the 4th best RB in fantasy. Hunt led the league in rushing yards and scored eight TDs. TDs can be tricky to predict, but what if Clyde Edwards-Helaire matches Hunt's rushing totals and scores more than eight TDs? He did have 17 last year for LSU.
And who was the coach when Kareem Hunt finished RB4 as a rookie? Who was the coach when Jamaal Charles finished as RB1 overall? That's right, Big Red, future Hall of Famer, Andy Reid. Reid, head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, has overseen monstrous years for fantasy running backs, including Brian Westbrook's 2007 campaign resulting in 1,333 rushing yards, 771 receiving yards, 90 receptions, and 12 total TDs.
So if you don't get the first pick and secure McCaffrey, fear not because there is a chance your RB will be even better, if recent history repeats itself, we will see a new RB1 this year which could be Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
By Kevin Quirk
Twitter: @1on1FSC
IG: @1on1FSC
E-mail: 1on1FSC@gmail.com
